Pool C Will be the Most Exciting to Watch in RWC 2023 with Four Teams that could make the Knockouts
While there might not be a traditional ‘Pool of Death’ in this year’s Rugby World Cup, where multiple high ranking teams fight for two quarterfinal spots, there will be an equally, if not more, exciting pool. Pool C will have Australia (6th World Ranking, 81.80 points), Wales (9th, 78.08), Georgia (13th, 76.23) Fiji (14th, 74.84), and Portugal (16th, 67.62). The top and bottom ranked teams in Pool C only have a position difference of 10 spots, whereas Pool A the difference is 19 (2 vs 21), Pool B is 18 (1 vs 19), and Pool D is 16 (6 vs 22). In previous renditions of the quadrennial tournament, the Pool of Death is normally reserved for groups containing at least three tier one nations that have relatively good odds of beating one another (such as Pool C in 2019 with England, France and Argentina or Pool A in 2015 with Australia, Wales, and England). In 2023’s Pool C, there are only two Tier One teams, but Georgia and Fiji have been actively challenging teams with Tier One status for some time now.
The main difference between that of a Tier One and a Tier Two side has to do with finances, performance, and history. Overall, Tier One nations get 3 votes (Japan had 2 when voting for WR Chair in 2020), while Tier Two nations get 1 vote. Georgia and Fiji are in the high performance band that covers both Tier One and Tier Two but they lack the overall finances and historical results. Much can and has been said of how much Wales and Australia have been struggling recently, but perhaps not enough is being made of how good Georgia and Fiji are.
Fiji are arguably the most successful non-Tier One side in the history of Rugby and the World Cup, besides maybe Samoa. In the professional era, Fiji have defeated Tier One opponents nine times (Italy five times, Scotland twice, and Wales and France once), including a famous win over Wales in the 2007 World Cup to go to their second quarter-finals. Only Samoa have made as many, and not since 1995, and still more than Japan (once) and Italy (never). Fiji has previous success at the World Cup and against the big dogs.
Georgia do not have as much long-term success, but they have steadily improved since the founding of their national team in the 90s. This past year they recorded their first two victories over Tier One nations with a 28-19 victory over Italy in Georgia, and a 13-12 win over Wales in Cardiff. Previously Georgia had shown hopes of beating a Tier One nation in a close match against Ireland in the 2007 World Cup, where they lost 14-10.
Georgia’s 13-12 victory over Wales in Cardiff
Overall, this pool has four teams that seem to be pretty evenly matched in recent times. Looking at recent matches between these sides, there is the previously mentioned Georgian win over Wales, while Wales and Australia have both lost to Italy this past year, a side Georgia was able to defeat. Meanwhile these teams are all very familiar with each other in a World Cup setting, as they all shared a pool in 2019 while all but Georgia shared a pool in 2015 and 2007. As a matter of fact Wales and Fiji have shared the same pool in every edition for the World Cup since 2007. This familiarity could assist the two smaller nations in their match up against Wales and Australia, especially Wales who have been struggling mightily recently.
Moreover, Fiji and Georgia have significantly larger professional talent pools than before due to the creation of teams like the Fijian Drua and the Black Lions, reinforcing the numerous players plying their trade in Europe. As discussed in detail on a previous blog post on this site, the importance of the newly created Pacific based Super Rugby side and how they will impact the depth and cohesion of the Pacific Islander teams leads way for good change, but the Black Lions have not received that same treatment. Like Fiji, Georgia has a lot of professionals making good money and getting good minutes in some top professional leagues, most notably in France. However, in a similar vein, the majority of their professionals overseas mostly make up a few position groups, mostly forwards and scrum halves, and that is where the Black Lions set up comes into play.
According to stats from Tier 2 Rugby, for the 2022/23 season, there are 81 Georgians attached to professional sides in France (79), Ireland (1), and England (1). 61 of these players have had game time with the first side of their respective teams. Looking deeper into these numbers, of the 81 Georgians, there are 50 front rowers, 12 locks, 9 backrowers, 4 scrum halves, 2 centers, 2 wingers, and one each of fly-half and fullback. This demonstrates the impressive forward depth, especially amongst the front row, but also highlights their lack of, though much improved, depth in the backs outside of scrum half. Meanwhile, Fiji has more players in Europe with 86, mostly in France (74) with some in England (9), Italy (1), and Scotland (2). Fiji have 7 front rowers, 12 locks, 11 backrowers, 1 scrumhalf, 1 fly-half, 24 centers, and 30 wingers and no specialty fullback. They have impressive depth in most of the backs and good depth with most of their forward pack, but are lacking in playmaking positions.
Fiji’s 39-21 defeat to Australia in the 2019 Rugby World Cup
The Fijian Drua and Black Lions are already helping to shore up the depleted positions of need for their respective home nations. For Georgia, their squad that took part in the Autumn Nations included Black Lions that made up 4/5 centers, all 3 wingers, 2/3 fullbacks, and one of two fly-halves. The Black Lions also provided all 3 hookers along with several other forwards and scrum halves. Fiji’s team included 2/3 hookers, 3/6 props, 2/4 locks, all 3 scrum halves, one of two fly-halves, and a center and winger that were contracted players from the Fijian Drua . In the 2019 World Cup Fiji had 7 club and semi-pro players and Georgia had 13, this won’t be the case in 2023.
Overall, Georgia now have much greater talent throughout their squad and are not just reliant on a physically dominant forward pack. They’ve always possessed good scrum halves, it’s pretty necessary to keep the forwards playing effectively, but now possess talent throughout their backline. Look no further the speedy and agile 20-year-old Davit Niniashvili at fullback, the 25-year-old well rounded and powerful Giorgi Kveseladze at center, the 23-year-old talented field general Tedo Abzhandadze at fly half, and 29-year-old captain and defensive stalwart Merab Sharikadze at center. These players create an attacking threat in their backline that Georgia have historically lacked.
Fiji seem to have an endless conveyer belt of backline talent that brings both speed and power in abundance, but are starting to come through with greater tight-five depth that can match up at the set piece and around the park, the Drua have the fifth best scrum this season in Super Rugby where they’ve won 85% of their scrums. They now have players like skillful and athletic locks Temo Mayanavanua and Tevita Ratuva, and a front row that includes Sam Matavesi and Mesu Dolokoto at hooker, and powerhouses Eroni Mawi, luke Tagi, and Lee-Roy Atalifo at prop. There is plenty more youth coming through the Drua that will get a chance to play for their country, without having to choose between Fiji and their club like years past.
Australia are in a better position than Wales, as most of their difficulties could be attributed to their injury woes (they fielded 51 players in 14 matches this season), but both sides recently went through a coaching change with Eddie Jones taking the helm for the Wallabies and Gatland reprising his role as Wales head coach. Both are very capable coaches, but we have yet to see Jones’ new side play a match, and Gatland’s Wales came fifth in the 2023 Six Nations, granted he had a short turnaround. Neither nation can afford to take any opponent in this group lightly, even Portugal. Meanwhile, Fiji are also undergoing a change at had coach as well, with former Fiji international lock, Simon Raiwalui taking over after Vern Cotter stepped down.
And of course we can’t ignore Portugal, who have been a very exciting team to watch in recent seasons, and will be aiming to make some noise later this year. Their team features several exciting backs such as captain Tomás Appleton, try scoring maestro Rodrigo Marta, and brilliant fullback Nuno Sousa Guedes, and the team is all passion, something we see in abundance with all the South American teams. They may not be seen as a threat to make it out of the pool but they shouldn’t be taken lightly, just ask Georgia who are quite familiar with them and drew with them in 2022 and saw Os Lobos finish right behind them for second place in the 2023 Rugby Europe Championship.
Regardless of who manages to come out of this pool, expect there to be some exciting rugby and perhaps some drama as three of the five teams will be navigating the World Cup with coaches they have had in place for less than a year to that point.
